Nervous-Workhorse
Skill vs luck
Nervous-Workhorse on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$3.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Nervous-Workhorse: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe12828219a38928b7d2b51175136f9cb017ddea3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Nervous-Workhorse: −$3.7K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$3.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY SS Lazio @ 41¢ | Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5) ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Over
@ 54¢
Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5 |
Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5 | $1.9K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?