Some-Standoff
Skill vs luck
Some-Standoff on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 65%–100%) · profit +$3.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Some-Standoff: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdf434cabf51bf8c2390fc038a28cdd8496e5ae9a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Some-Standoff: +$3.3K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 65%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$940
- Oct 7 – Oct 23
- +$2.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Thunder
@ 99¢
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) |
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | BUY TheMongolz @ 65¢ | Counter-Strike: BIG vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Clippers @ 91¢ | Kings vs. Clippers ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 12 | BUY KT Rolster @ 57¢ | LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Qinwen Zheng @ 74¢ | China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY HANJIN BRION @ 79¢ | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 74¢
Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Denmark win on 2026-10-01? | $1.5K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?