Virtual-Provision

0xde4b34ef9127875def1152cef2ff5c7ef7031222

Skill vs luck

Virtual-Provision on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 70%–100%) · profit +$53. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Virtual-Provision: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xde4b34ef9127875def1152cef2ff5c7ef7031222. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Virtual-Provision: +$53 on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 70%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$53

return +0.3%

Settled bets

$15K staked

Won

100.0%

95% range 70%–100%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$13
Sep 4 – Sep 19: +$24
Sep 19 – Oct 4: +$6
Oct 4 – Oct 19: +$10

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.3% (1,931 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 17	BUY BNK FEARX @ 99.7¢ LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner	LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner ↗	$1.5K
Oct 16	BUY MVK Esports @ 99.78¢ LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In ↗	$1.5K
Oct 5	BUY No @ 99.9¢ Will Shopify Rebellion win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?	Will Shopify Rebellion win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?	$2.5K
Oct 1	BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition @ 99.9¢ LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 2 Winner	LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 2 Winner	$1.5K
Oct 1	BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition @ 99.9¢ LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner	LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner	$2.2K
Sep 22	BUY Barça eSports @ 99.87¢ LoL: Barça eSports vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D	LoL: Barça eSports vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D	$1.6K
Sep 14	BUY Estral Esports @ 99.59¢ LoL: Estral Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner	LoL: Estral Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner	$2.0K
Sep 14	BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix @ 99¢ LoL: BIG vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner	LoL: BIG vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner	$1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792393220, computed 2026-10-19 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792393220 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed