Lanky-Diagram
Skill vs luck
Lanky-Diagram on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$9.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Lanky-Diagram: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdd4ac7b437a98db76277d16ecbfc2865d15ff91c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Lanky-Diagram: −$9.1K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$9.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Team Falcons @ 66¢ | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $17K |
| Oct 17 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 55¢ | Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) ↗ | $9.4K |
| Aug 28 | SELL Paper Rex
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs ONSIDE GAMING (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs ONSIDE GAMING (+1.5) | $1.3K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?