Worse-Goldfish

0xdd23fa3601b9427ab24fa9eb84f3d5f04164387e

Skill vs luck

Worse-Goldfish on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 71% (95% range 36%–92%) · profit +$698. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Worse-Goldfish: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdd23fa3601b9427ab24fa9eb84f3d5f04164387e. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Worse-Goldfish: +$698 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 71% (95% range 36%–92%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$698

return +9.9%

Settled bets

$7.1K staked

Won

71.4%

95% range 36%–92%

Mostly bets on

sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 6 – Sep 23: +$313
Sep 23 – Oct 10: −$1.2K
Oct 10 – Oct 27: +$1.6K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.4% (2,295 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 25	BUY Vitality @ 74¢ Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗	$1.2K
Oct 25	BUY FUT Esports @ 72¢ Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗	$1.1K
Oct 20	BUY Kasidit Samrej @ 66¢ Guangzhou 2: Kasidit Samrej vs Rio Noguchi	Guangzhou 2: Kasidit Samrej vs Rio Noguchi	$1.5K
Sep 24	SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze @ 99.9¢ Tolentino: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Barbora Palicova	Tolentino: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Barbora Palicova ↗	$1.1K
Sep 24	BUY Adelaide 36ers @ 92¢ Perth Wildcats vs. Adelaide 36ers	Perth Wildcats vs. Adelaide 36ers	$1.2K
Sep 17	BUY Samir Banerjee @ 91¢ M25 Nevers: Samir Banerjee vs Robin Eldin	M25 Nevers: Samir Banerjee vs Robin Eldin	$1.1K
Sep 17	BUY Leticia Garcia Vidal @ 83¢ W15 Sao Luis: Leticia Garcia Vidal vs sofia omati albieri	W15 Sao Luis: Leticia Garcia Vidal vs sofia omati albieri	$1.0K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1793084411, computed 2026-10-27 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793084411 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed