Abandoned-Barley
Skill vs luck
Abandoned-Barley on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$268. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Abandoned-Barley: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd9e4185f69334b7082be07810e69a70fea9f13ed. Data CC BY 4.0.
Abandoned-Barley: +$268 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 23
- +$268
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Clippers @ 98¢ | Kings vs. Clippers ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Lions
@ 89¢
Spread: Cardinals (-6.5) |
Spread: Cardinals (-6.5) | $1.8K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?