Stupendous-Tonality
Skill vs luck
Stupendous-Tonality on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 38% (95% range 14%–69%) · profit +$100. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Stupendous-Tonality: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd1780c09a7c3622958c568ca96d10d9cd4ba6703. Data CC BY 4.0.
Stupendous-Tonality: +$100 on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 14%–69%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$282
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$1.7K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 44¢ | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $3.2K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Yes
@ 60¢
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22? |
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22? | $1.6K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Yes
@ 60¢
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22? |
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-22? | $2.2K |
| Oct 10 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-10? |
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-10? | $2.1K |
| Oct 4 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Greece win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Greece win on 2026-10-04? | $1.7K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 50¢
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04? | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Argentina
@ 77¢
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) |
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 82¢
Will Paraguay win on 2026-10-02? |
Will Paraguay win on 2026-10-02? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?