Sparkling-Dynamite

0xd13b827a132273bee9e1a95b3c35b67cf25e455a

Skill vs luck

Sparkling-Dynamite on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit +$9.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Sparkling-Dynamite: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd13b827a132273bee9e1a95b3c35b67cf25e455a. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sparkling-Dynamite: +$9.9K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$9.9K

return +115.1%

Settled bets

$8.6K staked

Won

33.3%

95% range 12%–65%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 4 – Oct 19: +$9.9K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.3% (1,931 positions).

In the live feed

SELL $7.0K

Sinja Kraus @ 99.9¢ → won

4h ago

Set 1 Winner: Caty McNally vs Sinja Kraus

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 19	SELL Sinja Kraus @ 99.9¢ Set 1 Winner: Caty McNally vs Sinja Kraus	Set 1 Winner: Caty McNally vs Sinja Kraus	$7.0K
Oct 18	BUY BetBoom Team @ 39¢ Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗	$4.5K
Oct 18	SELL FURIA @ 75¢ Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 4 Winner	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 4 Winner	$2.1K
Oct 18	SELL BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢ Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 3 Winner	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 3 Winner	$11K
Oct 18	SELL BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢ Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	$2.3K
Oct 18	BUY Jan Kumstat @ 50¢ Set 2 Winner: Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh	Set 2 Winner: Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh	$1.1K
Oct 18	BUY Mika Brunold @ 25¢ Roanne: Matteo Martineau vs Mika Brunold	Roanne: Matteo Martineau vs Mika Brunold	$1.6K
Oct 17	BUY Inner Circle @ 45¢ Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	$1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792393220, computed 2026-10-19 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792393220 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed