Magnificent-Occupation-Fiery

0xcc37dfa0597c3a7706d2ad184e77a2040191c4ea

Skill vs luck

Magnificent-Occupation-Fiery on Polymarket: 18 settled bets · won 56% (95% range 34%–75%) · profit +$770. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Magnificent-Occupation-Fiery: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xcc37dfa0597c3a7706d2ad184e77a2040191c4ea. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Magnificent-Occupation-Fiery: +$770 on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 34%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$770

return +4.5%

Settled bets

$17K staked

Won

55.6%

95% range 34%–75%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 4 – Oct 19: +$770

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.3% (1,931 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 18	BUY Beijing Guoan FC @ 49¢ Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)	Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 39¢ Will Colon de Santa Fe win on 2026-10-17?	Will Colon de Santa Fe win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 63¢ Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-10-17?	Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 68¢ Will NK Istra 1961 win on 2026-10-17?	Will NK Istra 1961 win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 63¢ Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-10-17?	Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 63¢ Will Jahn Regensburg win on 2026-10-17?	Will Jahn Regensburg win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 70¢ Will 1. FC Saarbrucken win on 2026-10-17?	Will 1. FC Saarbrucken win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 65¢ Will Huddersfield Town AFC win on 2026-10-17?	Will Huddersfield Town AFC win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792393220, computed 2026-10-19 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792393220 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed