Personal-Conscience
Skill vs luck
Personal-Conscience on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$3.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Personal-Conscience: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xcbd4e59cd04a74291e3333630eeec431e4814e22. Data CC BY 4.0.
Personal-Conscience: +$3.8K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- −$5.0K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$8.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Saints @ 51¢ | Saints vs. Giants ↗ | $9.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 7¢
Will Austria win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Austria win on 2026-10-01? | $3.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 8¢
Will Austria win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Austria win on 2026-10-01? | $1.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 8¢
Will Austria win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Austria win on 2026-10-01? | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?