Distorted-Midwife
Skill vs luck
Distorted-Midwife on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$732. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Distorted-Midwife: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc978ac8e296d1554a142f2b85770e8bb3c432d5e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Distorted-Midwife: −$732 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$732
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY No @ 88¢ | Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-19? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 18 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-18? |
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-18? | $3.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Cupid Esports
@ 53¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?