Upbeat-Context
Skill vs luck
Upbeat-Context on Polymarket: 12 settled bets · won 42% (95% range 19%–68%) · profit +$606. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Upbeat-Context: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc8e3a345340584e6591dea95b6feedb45c589860. Data CC BY 4.0.
Upbeat-Context: +$606 on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 19%–68%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$606
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Inner Circle
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A |
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A | $1.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Inner Circle
@ 98¢
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A |
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Steven Koslow @ 99.9¢ | UFC Fight Night: Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow (Bantamweight, Prelims) ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 17 | BUY CyberHero
@ 90¢
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY India Women
@ 98¢
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India T20s: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women |
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India T20s: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women | $1.1K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Team Resilience
@ 87¢
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Zenith - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Zenith - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 13 | SELL CyberHero
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Team Yandex @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?