Impressive-Dresser

0xc6beb58b302adbc88a64b34e8f991c283dffa0f3

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Impressive-Dresser: −$9.7K on 41 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 30%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$9.7K
return −15.4%
Settled bets
41
$63K staked
Won
43.9%
95% range 30%–59%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 24 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 7
−$3.1K
Sep 7 – Sep 25
−$5.4K
Sep 25 – Oct 13
−$1.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6% (2,332 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY No @ 99.7¢
Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?
Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections? $1.0K
Oct 11 BUY No @ 88¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? $1.5K
Oct 10 BUY No @ 96¢
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? $2.7K
Oct 10 BUY Vitality @ 58¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) $1.3K
Oct 9 SELL MOUZ @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner $3.9K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 88¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $2.4K
Oct 9 BUY Vitality @ 90¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner $2.3K
Oct 9 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 92¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $2.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791874803, computed 2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791874803 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed