Gaseous-Deal
Skill vs luck
Gaseous-Deal on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$994. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Gaseous-Deal: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc67b67ca73558f5aebe891f4c676585527d3d35e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Gaseous-Deal: −$994 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- +$260
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Ramazan Temirov @ 49¢ | UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.3K |
| Aug 26 | BUY
@ 58¢
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs TLN Pirates (+1.5) AND LoL: Forsaken vs Barcząca Esports (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season |
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs TLN Pirates (+1.5) AND LoL: Forsaken vs Barcząca Esports (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season | $1.1K |
| Aug 26 | BUY PCIFIC
@ 82¢
LoL: PCIFIC vs Team Phoenix - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: PCIFIC vs Team Phoenix - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?