Vigilant-Steel-Afterthought
Skill vs luck
Vigilant-Steel-Afterthought on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$4. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Vigilant-Steel-Afterthought: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc6073356ad4107d89f388ff7a24dbd4be49d96c3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Vigilant-Steel-Afterthought: −$4 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$4
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 17 | SELL MVK Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports - Game 4 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 16 | SELL FURIA Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?