Sorrowful-Haunt

0xc400a550dd6a317c594993336ad7d68eca5314db

Skill vs luck

Sorrowful-Haunt on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 41%–93%) · profit +$6.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Sorrowful-Haunt: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc400a550dd6a317c594993336ad7d68eca5314db. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sorrowful-Haunt: +$6.7K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 41%–93%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$6.7K

return +421.1%

Settled bets

$1.6K staked

Won

75.0%

95% range 41%–93%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 8 – Oct 25: +$6.7K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.9% (2,417 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 24	SELL Yes @ 36¢ Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-10-24?	Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-10-24?	$1.1K
Oct 24	SELL Yes @ 69¢ Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-24?	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-24? ↗	$1.8K
Oct 18	BUY Over @ 97¢ AA Estudiantes vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 0.5	AA Estudiantes vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 0.5	$1.6K
Oct 17	SELL Over @ 75¢ 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5	1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5	$1.5K
Oct 12	SELL Yes @ 60¢ Will Granada CF win on 2026-10-12?	Will Granada CF win on 2026-10-12?	$1.2K
Oct 11	SELL Over @ 60¢ 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5	1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5	$2.2K
Oct 10	SELL Over @ 52¢ Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5	$1.5K
Oct 9	SELL Yes @ 53¢ Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-10-09?	$2.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792911646, computed 2026-10-25 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792911646 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed