Even-Surface
Skill vs luck
Even-Surface on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$619. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Even-Surface: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xc32d0c03dfc8c6364e488fce819e0d65400c2659. Data CC BY 4.0.
Even-Surface: +$619 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$918
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$298
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Panthers @ 54¢ | Spread: Panthers (-2.5) ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Under @ 54¢ | Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5 ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Vikings @ 56¢ | Vikings vs. Saints ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY 49ers @ 59¢ | Broncos vs. 49ers ↗ | $1.3K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?