Offbeat-Thesis
0xc1a58674dbcc1d3208f7e61a0a8b252162caf290
Offbeat-Thesis: −$12K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$12K
return −54.3%
Settled bets
2
$23K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- −$12K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? |
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | $13K |
| Sep 10 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? |
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September? | $10K |
| Aug 25 | BUY No
@ 93¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? |
Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? | $3.5K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.