Sad-Terrarium

0xbf58f233704e9345fc939c9da923e5421ddfbdea

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sad-Terrarium: −$3.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$3.1K
return −29.3%
Settled bets
5
$11K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 12%–77%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 7 – Sep 25
−$3.5K
Sep 25 – Oct 13
+$340
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6% (2,332 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Sharks @ 39¢
Oilers vs. Sharks
Oilers vs. Sharks $1.9K
Oct 6 BUY Hurricanes @ 55¢
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens $2.7K
Sep 16 BUY Under @ 42¢
FC Barcelona vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 4.5
FC Barcelona vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 4.5 $2.6K
Sep 16 BUY Under @ 46¢
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 $1.7K
Sep 14 BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 66¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds $1.7K

All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791874803, computed 2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791874803 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed