Legal-Knot-Neglect
Skill vs luck
Legal-Knot-Neglect on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit +$6.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Legal-Knot-Neglect: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbe9fd078456503f1a5d9115d1ac6d9a7eb42014a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Legal-Knot-Neglect: +$6.4K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$20
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$148
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$2.4K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$3.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Mike Malott @ 56¢ | UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card) ↗ | $3.7K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes @ 96¢ | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? |
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | $4.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 72¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner | $2.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Vitality
@ 98¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner | $2.8K |
| Sep 30 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? |
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | $4.3K |
| Sep 23 | SELL 3DMAX
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs 3DMAX - Map 3 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs 3DMAX - Map 3 Winner | $2.2K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes
@ 94¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? |
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | $2.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?