Tedious-Incarnation-Uplift
Skill vs luck
Tedious-Incarnation-Uplift on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–49%) · profit −$4. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Tedious-Incarnation-Uplift: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbe06a09aa15b301fc385fca2b6ad8f603d24116f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Tedious-Incarnation-Uplift: −$4 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–49%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$2
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$2
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Team Lynx
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LEGION vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LEGION vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 16 | SELL BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.2K |
| Sep 24 | SELL LGD Gaming @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?