Lasting-Lipid-Sloth

0xbd4fe11144b841cbf810b3d1bf8019590382adc6

Skill vs luck

Lasting-Lipid-Sloth on Polymarket: 46 settled bets · won 4% (95% range 1%–14%) · profit −$1.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.

Post on X Telegram WhatsApp Email

Cite: Hopium Games, “Lasting-Lipid-Sloth: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbd4fe11144b841cbf810b3d1bf8019590382adc6. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Lasting-Lipid-Sloth: −$1.6K on 46 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 4% (95% range 1%–14%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$1.6K

return −35.9%

Settled bets

$4.3K staked

Won

4.3%

95% range 1%–14%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 22 – Oct 8: −$7
Oct 8 – Oct 25: −$1.5K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.9% (2,417 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 25	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5	Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5	$2.4K
Oct 25	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	$1.3K
Oct 24	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5	Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5	$3.8K
Oct 24	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 ↗	$1.6K
Oct 23	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Vitória SC vs. CS Marítimo: O/U 2.5	Vitória SC vs. CS Marítimo: O/U 2.5	$4.0K
Oct 23	BUY Over @ 80¢ SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5	SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5	$1.0K
Oct 23	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5	$1.6K
Oct 22	SELL Over @ 99.9¢ FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC København: O/U 3.5	FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC København: O/U 3.5	$3.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792911646, computed 2026-10-25 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792911646 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed