Probable-Offset-Marketplace
Skill vs luck
Probable-Offset-Marketplace on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$16. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Probable-Offset-Marketplace: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xbca96de59786a9ca4be1d22e5c0960887e42ed7c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Probable-Offset-Marketplace: −$16 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$16
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | Timberwolves vs. Magic ↗ | $16K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?