Fixed-Derivation
Skill vs luck
Fixed-Derivation on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 41%–93%) · profit +$5.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fixed-Derivation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb9abbf527032ba370e3519de95ff907d0154f282. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fixed-Derivation: +$5.2K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 41%–93%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.1K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$1.7K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$2.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 59¢ | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No
@ 28¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? |
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Kings
@ 52¢
Kings vs. Islanders |
Kings vs. Islanders | $2.1K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Over
@ 52¢
Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 |
Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 15 | BUY BC.Game Esports
@ 43¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D |
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D | $1.7K |
| Oct 15 | BUY Devils
@ 57¢
Rangers vs. Devils |
Rangers vs. Devils | $1.7K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Imperial
@ 60¢
Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs Imperial (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs Imperial (+1.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Blackhawks
@ 43¢
Blues vs. Blackhawks |
Blues vs. Blackhawks | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?