Damaged-Background
Skill vs luck
Damaged-Background on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$3.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Damaged-Background: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb50a6c407d3c17b2c3772b4bb9c0e432315b3348. Data CC BY 4.0.
Damaged-Background: +$3.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$24
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$3.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $3.2K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Over @ 63¢ | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 |
Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 | $3.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Over
@ 61¢
Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 |
Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 | $3.1K |
| Sep 17 | SELL Over
@ 99¢
Celtic FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5 |
Celtic FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5 | $1.5K |
| Sep 14 | SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | Leeds United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $8.3K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?