Key-Capability
Skill vs luck
Key-Capability on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit −$2.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Key-Capability: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb0e3fcbe0d7f17168fdce93f89c0168d3fa329eb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Key-Capability: −$2.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$2.1K
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Houston
@ 43¢
Spread: Houston (-4.5) |
Spread: Houston (-4.5) | $3.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY TCU
@ 49¢
Spread: TCU (-6.5) |
Spread: TCU (-6.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Over
@ 43¢
Auburn vs. Georgia: O/U 55.5 |
Auburn vs. Georgia: O/U 55.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Seahawks
@ 64¢
Spread: Broncos (-8.5) |
Spread: Broncos (-8.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Under
@ 60¢
Packers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5 |
Packers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5 | $1.1K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?