Satisfied-Disease-Flower
Skill vs luck
Satisfied-Disease-Flower on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 86% (95% range 49%–97%) · profit +$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Satisfied-Disease-Flower: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xafc92e7c42c98fa8a3dd8b7103f080600d63be26. Data CC BY 4.0.
Satisfied-Disease-Flower: +$1.5K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 49%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 84¢ | Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-27? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 78¢
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-10-25? |
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-10-25? | $1.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 77¢
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-10-24? |
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-10-24? | $1.2K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-10-24? | $3.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 88¢
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-24? | $3.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Jong PSV Eindhoven win on 2026-10-23? |
Will Jong PSV Eindhoven win on 2026-10-23? | $1.5K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-10-12? |
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-10-12? | $2.1K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?