Noxious-Donor
Skill vs luck
Noxious-Donor on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–39%) · profit −$9. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Noxious-Donor: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xaf6f825e5666a1a81e77d66e4c1dc553d63d9f0a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Noxious-Donor: −$9 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–39%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$3
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$3
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$4
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Heroic @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs ↗ | $2.1K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Xtreme Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $1.4K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Aurora Gaming @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: NRG vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs ↗ | $1.8K |
| Sep 18 | SELL MIBR @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs ↗ | $1.4K |
| Sep 18 | SELL MOUZ @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs ↗ | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?