Friendly-Senate
Skill vs luck
Friendly-Senate on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 80% (95% range 49%–94%) · profit +$3.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Friendly-Senate: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xaf21b89714840bfbb74f401bc0007710d065d34a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Friendly-Senate: +$3.2K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 49%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$450
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$3
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$382
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$2.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY BNK FEARX @ 60¢ | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Karmine Corp @ 81¢ | LoL: MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Movistar KOI Fénix
@ 78¢
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs |
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY TLN Pirates
@ 85¢
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs |
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs | $7.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY JD Gaming @ 95¢ | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Natus Vincere @ 99¢ | LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.1K |
| Sep 20 | BUY EDward Gaming Youth Team @ 85¢ | LoL: Fuego vs EDward Gaming Youth Team (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY
@ 82¢
LoL: Fuego vs EDward Gaming Youth Team (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A AND LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs |
LoL: Fuego vs EDward Gaming Youth Team (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A AND LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?