Tough-Hammer
0xaac2469db4c243a2931acc252967b171bd97e8ce
Tough-Hammer: −$5.6K on 61 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 84% (95% range 72%–91%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$5.6K
return −2.6%
Settled bets
61
$216K staked
Won
83.6%
95% range 72%–91%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 51 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.8K
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- −$4.5K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- +$662
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | $1.5K |
| Oct 12 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 12 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | $2.0K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | $2.1K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 11? |
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 11? | $1.0K |
| Oct 12 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? |
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | $2.0K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 11? | $1.0K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes
@ 99.6¢
Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-10-11? |
Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-10-11? | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.