Petty-Retrospective-Destiny
Skill vs luck
Petty-Retrospective-Destiny on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$1.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Petty-Retrospective-Destiny: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa8aefa12c7d694d5a6fcab0cb24c6d6fea392659. Data CC BY 4.0.
Petty-Retrospective-Destiny: −$1.1K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Ramazan Temirov @ 50¢ | UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Grizzlies
@ 45¢
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) |
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Jazz
@ 44¢
Spread: Jazz (-2.5) |
Spread: Jazz (-2.5) | $2.3K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?