Regular-Gallon
Skill vs luck
Regular-Gallon on Polymarket: 18 settled bets · won 56% (95% range 34%–75%) · profit +$11K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Regular-Gallon: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa85b3359d5e0bdcb925f6a2b94ddfbf6d403eb0e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Regular-Gallon: +$11K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 34%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$11K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Grizzlies @ 99.9¢ | Grizzlies vs. Jazz ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Grizzlies @ 99.8¢ | Grizzlies vs. Jazz ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Grizzlies @ 99.7¢ | Grizzlies vs. Jazz ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Warriors @ 40¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Warriors @ 39¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Warriors @ 38¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Nuggets @ 67¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Rockets @ 99.9¢ | Hawks vs. Rockets ↗ | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?