Orange-Sword
Skill vs luck
Orange-Sword on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$3. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Orange-Sword: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa6ca58deb9c60bf2cf62fd76c34c10e0963ac524. Data CC BY 4.0.
Orange-Sword: −$3 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$2
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$1
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Heroic @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 6 | SELL Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs ↗ | $2.4K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?