Exhausted-Ballot
Skill vs luck
Exhausted-Ballot on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$3. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Exhausted-Ballot: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa66bf0b4febba851cf8b698cbdd825b8849f73e8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Exhausted-Ballot: −$3 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- −$3
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5 |
Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 0.5 |
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 0.5 | $1.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?