Austere-Bail
0xa4fcd42731853ed3711aac964a14f442b1f6977d
Austere-Bail: +$1.9K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 92% (95% range 65%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.9K
return +0.8%
Settled bets
12
$261K staked
Won
91.7%
95% range 65%–99%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- +$1.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will England win on 2026-09-26? |
Will England win on 2026-09-26? | $1.5K |
| Sep 26 | BUY England
@ 98¢
Spread: Spain (-3.5) |
Spread: Spain (-3.5) | $2.5K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Under
@ 98¢
Slovenia vs. Scotland: Slovenia O/U 3.5 |
Slovenia vs. Scotland: Slovenia O/U 3.5 | $6.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Spain
@ 96¢
Spread: England (-2.5) |
Spread: England (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Spain
@ 96¢
Spread: England (-2.5) |
Spread: England (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Spain
@ 96¢
Spread: England (-2.5) |
Spread: England (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Spain
@ 96¢
Spread: England (-2.5) |
Spread: England (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Spain
@ 96¢
Spread: England (-2.5) |
Spread: England (-2.5) | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.