Worthy-Ideal-Smoke
Skill vs luck
Worthy-Ideal-Smoke on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit −$2.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Worthy-Ideal-Smoke: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa462f97d840d5d5f69ca5a642d116232d50d7b59. Data CC BY 4.0.
Worthy-Ideal-Smoke: −$2.5K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$2.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL No
@ 56¢
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-24? | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes @ 65¢ | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes @ 69¢ | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No
@ 61¢
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-23? |
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-23? | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | SELL No
@ 66¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17? |
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17? | $1.4K |
| Oct 14 | BUY No
@ 73¢
Will FC Porto win on 2026-10-14? |
Will FC Porto win on 2026-10-14? | $2.7K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?