Candid-Lighting
Skill vs luck
Candid-Lighting on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$3.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Candid-Lighting: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa3e9a711841e655def080044768452b60f4263d0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Candid-Lighting: +$3.0K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$320
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$3.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY No
@ 25¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? |
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M? | $1.6K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? |
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes
@ 75¢
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 73¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? |
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 72¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? |
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | $1.1K |
| Sep 21 | SELL No
@ 76¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | $1.8K |
| Sep 15 | SELL Yes
@ 85¢
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV? |
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV? | $1.2K |
| Sep 9 | SELL Yes @ 46¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?