Flawed-Lieu
Skill vs luck
Flawed-Lieu on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit +$31. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Flawed-Lieu: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa05ec37f1039fab381d8f353354d00cd8c594394. Data CC BY 4.0.
Flawed-Lieu: +$31 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$469
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$438
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Team Liquid @ 63¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $3.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Team Liquid @ 62¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $6.5K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Anyones Legend @ 33¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Anyones Legend @ 48¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Anyones Legend @ 49¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Invictus Gaming @ 84¢ | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $2.5K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?