Ornate-Deadline
Skill vs luck
Ornate-Deadline on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$3.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ornate-Deadline: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9c846cf848e5ed727163ab314ae3caec84b2eac4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ornate-Deadline: −$3.8K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$3.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Under
@ 75¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 | $3.8K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 63¢ | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? ↗ | $2.0K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?