Empty-Smile

0x9bad4efb6ef620206318b540931759f472a8861f

Skill vs luck

Empty-Smile on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$519. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Empty-Smile: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9bad4efb6ef620206318b540931759f472a8861f. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Empty-Smile: +$519 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$519
return +7.3%
Settled bets
2
$7.1K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 3 – Oct 18
+$519
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.2% (2,088 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 17 BUY FURIA Esports @ 15¢
LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
 LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In ↗ $2.4K
Oct 17 BUY @ 48¢
LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs
 LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs $4.5K
Oct 17 BUY @ 48¢
LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs
 LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In AND Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs $3.4K
Oct 17 BUY Heroic @ 62¢
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs
 Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs ↗ $4.7K
Oct 17 BUY @ 49¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs AND LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner
 Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs AND LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner $2.4K

All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792306820, computed 2026-10-18 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792306820 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed