Ill-Escalator
Skill vs luck
Ill-Escalator on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$4.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ill-Escalator: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9b25a2a3da7ec8a69d3685a43f2cacb494fcb5cc. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ill-Escalator: −$4.7K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- −$4.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | SELL Over @ 44¢ | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 ↗ | $3.7K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Vitality @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs ↗ | $7.9K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?