Easy-Going-Mallet-Competition
Skill vs luck
Easy-Going-Mallet-Competition on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$1.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Easy-Going-Mallet-Competition: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x96e1532f24a4aadc89979aba2a96993c2f576293. Data CC BY 4.0.
Easy-Going-Mallet-Competition: −$1.5K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Timberwolves
@ 48¢
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) |
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Thunder @ 48¢ | Spread: Thunder (-16.5) ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 46¢
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-10? |
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-10-10? | $1.4K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?