Frightened-Subsidence
Skill vs luck
Frightened-Subsidence on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$5.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Frightened-Subsidence: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x941054827fb8c9a8fe788cbef6ecc14dfa26ffcd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Frightened-Subsidence: −$5.4K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$5.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | SELL Up
@ 71¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Up
@ 66¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | $1.0K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Up
@ 58¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Keegan Smith
@ 87¢
Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun |
Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun | $2.3K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Keegan Smith
@ 66¢
Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun |
Guangzhou 2: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun | $5.2K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Mary Stoiana @ 89¢ | Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Moyuka Uchijima ↗ | $6.2K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Mary Stoiana @ 69¢ | Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Moyuka Uchijima ↗ | $6.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?