Fatal-Rainy
Skill vs luck
Fatal-Rainy on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 71% (95% range 36%–92%) · profit +$3.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fatal-Rainy: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x90c69b869f402a960752fa77ab6869f7534a0d13. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fatal-Rainy: +$3.7K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 71% (95% range 36%–92%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.8K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$895
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 34¢ | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-25? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Yes @ 47¢ | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY
@ 38¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-17? AND Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-17? |
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-17? AND Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-17? | $1.3K |
| Oct 5 | BUY
@ 41¢
Will England win on 2026-10-06? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-10-06? AND Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? AND Will France win on 2026-10-05? |
Will England win on 2026-10-06? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-10-06? AND Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? AND Will France win on 2026-10-05? | $1.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?