Breakable-Lamb
Skill vs luck
Breakable-Lamb on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit +$276. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Breakable-Lamb: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8bcfc30236b80d788e55f9bfb4bf3e9cf80fc767. Data CC BY 4.0.
Breakable-Lamb: +$276 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 20 – Oct 6
- −$2.0K
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- +$2.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | BUY Kings @ 46¢ | Spread: Clippers (-4.5) ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Nuggets
@ 72¢
Bulls vs. Nuggets |
Bulls vs. Nuggets | $13K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 38¢
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5 |
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5 | $1.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Under
@ 52¢
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5 |
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5 | $2.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?