Big-Lay
Skill vs luck
Big-Lay on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$5. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Big-Lay: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8b0ec9a50b67af131f69a292a013a5077bb9bd73. Data CC BY 4.0.
Big-Lay: +$5 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.0K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Pacers @ 69¢ | Pacers vs. Nets ↗ | $2.3K |
| Sep 17 | BUY M80
@ 49¢
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A |
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs M80 (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group A | $1.0K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?