Nervous-Kickoff-Weather

0x8a36da009d97915b11dc1bdea1f6e1361dc44836

Skill vs luck

Nervous-Kickoff-Weather on Polymarket: 16 settled bets · won 63% (95% range 39%–82%) · profit +$4.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

Post on X Telegram WhatsApp Email

Cite: Hopium Games, “Nervous-Kickoff-Weather: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8a36da009d97915b11dc1bdea1f6e1361dc44836. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Nervous-Kickoff-Weather: +$4.8K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 39%–82%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$4.8K

return +9.6%

Settled bets

$51K staked

Won

62.5%

95% range 39%–82%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 7 – Oct 24: +$4.8K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	SELL HULIGANI @ 69¢ Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A	Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A	$1.9K
Oct 23	SELL HULIGANI @ 93¢ Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	$1.3K
Oct 23	BUY HULIGANI @ 76¢ Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	$1.1K
Oct 23	BUY Inner Circle @ 99¢ Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner	$1.0K
Oct 23	BUY Astra Invicta @ 81¢ Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.2K
Oct 23	BUY Astra Invicta @ 76¢ Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.1K
Oct 23	SELL Astra Invicta @ 73¢ Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.1K
Oct 23	BUY Team Liquid @ 80¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed