Dependent-Reporting
Skill vs luck
Dependent-Reporting on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$2.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Dependent-Reporting: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x89bd93ba5f411c2e7aacb98cc2b5904d22fbcc95. Data CC BY 4.0.
Dependent-Reporting: −$2.0K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$2.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Team Liquid @ 57¢ | LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $2.0K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?