Ragged-Thongs
Skill vs luck
Ragged-Thongs on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 30% (95% range 11%–60%) · profit −$4.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ragged-Thongs: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x876bb030ddd424ef505ae02914024cf18c6a1703. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ragged-Thongs: −$4.5K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 30% (95% range 11%–60%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$3.9K
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- −$1.1K
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$515
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes
@ 39¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 70¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 21¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? |
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 93¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? |
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 7¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? |
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Yes @ 16¢ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes @ 17¢ | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 63¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | $3.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?