Hard-To-Find-Effectiveness-Dig
Skill vs luck
Hard-To-Find-Effectiveness-Dig on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$3.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hard-To-Find-Effectiveness-Dig: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x866f8b4767f2d6313a1ae35272bdd6f935beb807. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hard-To-Find-Effectiveness-Dig: −$3.0K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$3.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Nets @ 15¢ | Nets vs. Celtics ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Over
@ 99.22¢
Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 0.5 |
Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 0.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Over
@ 83¢
Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 0.5 |
Hamburger SV vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 0.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Yes
@ 82¢
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-10-27? |
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-10-27? | $1.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?